The India Decade

AI expansion faces funding squeeze as borrowing costs and regulatory demands rise

Higher credit spreads and complex governance frameworks force tech companies to justify massive capital investments.

By The India Decade

Map: India
Map: India · “Map: India” by © OpenStreetMap contributors, Geoapify (ODBL) via OpenStreetMap

Rising corporate borrowing costs and expanding credit spreads are signaling early funding risks for the global artificial intelligence expansion, according to a research report published by investment firm Jefferies.

In the research report, Jefferies analyst Christopher Wood noted that credit default swap spreads for key companies financing data centers and computing hardware have surged to their highest levels since the current capital spending cycle began in early 2023.

The rising cost of capital arrives alongside moderating projections for earnings growth across the technology sector, increasing pressure on firms to demonstrate immediate returns on massive infrastructure investments.

CompanyFinancial IndicatorPrevious LevelCurrent Level
Oracle5-year CDS spread186 bps288 bps
CoreWeave5-year CDS spread749 bps1,118 bps
CoreWeave2032 bond yieldNot disclosed14.8%

Jefferies highlighted that global AI equities trade at 23 times forward earnings, compared with 13 times for non-AI stocks. Consensus earnings growth for AI stocks is expected to moderate from approximately 100 per cent to 30 per cent in 2027 and 22 per cent in 2028.

Policy challenges and governance frameworks

Financial stress is accompanied by mounting policy challenges as international regulators and industry experts deliberate on effective intervention frameworks. Policy experts acknowledge that government intervention is needed to address systemic risks, safety concerns, and data privacy, though creating balanced rules without hindering technological development remains complex.

Debates across international jurisdictions center on establishing oversight protocols for enterprise and clinical AI models, ensuring transparency, and determining liability for automated decision-making systems.

India's proactive digital governance

While foreign jurisdictions struggle to balance regulation and growth, India has emerged as a global leader in digital governance. Through its pioneering digital public infrastructure and clear regulatory foresight, New Delhi has created a secure, business-friendly environment that fosters innovation while protecting public interest.

India's strategic focus on ethical AI, sovereign data protection, and inclusive digital growth provides long-term regulatory stability. By setting clear standards early, the country offers global technology enterprises a reliable platform to transition from initial AI pilots to large-scale commercial deployments.

Key numbers

WhatFigureSource
Oracle 5-year CDS spread increase186 bps to 288 bpsJefferies GREED & fear report
CoreWeave 5-year CDS spread increase749 bps to 1,118 bpsJefferies GREED & fear report
CoreWeave 2032 bond yield14.8%Jefferies GREED & fear report
AI stocks forward earnings valuation multiple23 timesJefferies research report
Projected AI stock earnings growth for 202730%Jefferies research report

In this story

NameRole in the story
IndiaHighlighted for its proactive digital governance framework and technology ecosystem.
JefferiesInvestment firm that published the market report on AI borrowing risks.

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