Lancet report warns AI misuse and nuclear war could wipe out humanity by 2100

What the Lancet commission says

The Lancet Commission on 21st‑Century Global Threats to Health, a panel of 35 experts, published a quantitative risk assessment that ranks 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years. Two of those threats – malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear conflict – are the only ones the report says could lead to human extinction by 2100.

AI and nuclear conflict as existential risks

The commission defines “malicious use of AI” to include the creation of autonomous biological weapons and other systems that could be turned against humanity. It adds that a full‑scale nuclear war could trigger a “nuclear famine” by injecting enough particulate matter into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, starving billions and potentially ending the species. Both scenarios are described as low‑probability but high‑impact events.

“Malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years,” the report reads.

Prof Christopher Murray, co‑chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, stressed that today’s policy choices will shape whether these risks materialise. “Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation,” he told reporters.

How the risks were measured

The commission used disability‑adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate how many healthy years could be lost under current trajectories for each threat. While AI and nuclear war rank highest for extinction potential, other items on the list – such as climate breakdown, air pollution, antimicrobial resistance and cuts to overseas aid – each exceed one billion cumulative DALYs.

A striking finding is that limiting global warming to about 1.8 °C (instead of a possible 4.4 °C) could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion healthy life years. Conversely, the report estimates that steep reductions in international health aid could cost up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100, with roughly 70 % of that burden falling on sub‑Saharan Africa.

Who is warning about the threats

Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious‑disease epidemiology at UCL, explained the purpose of the list: “If you are a policymaker today, whether at the global multilateral level or at the national level, these are the potential threats that you could face, and this is the magnitude by which, if you act, you can actually make a difference.”

What comes next

The findings will be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin and will be updated annually to reflect new data and emerging hazards. The commission urges governments to invest in anticipatory systems, strengthen health infrastructures and allocate resources to monitor and mitigate AI and nuclear risks before they spiral into crises.

Why it matters now

With the rapid rollout of powerful AI models and persistent geopolitical tensions over nuclear arsenals, the window for preventive action may be narrowing. The Lancet’s stark warning is a call for coordinated, cross‑sectoral effort – from technology regulators to disarmament negotiators – to keep the existential threat at bay.