India-US trade deal not imminent, says US trade chief Jamieson Greer

A trade agreement between the United States and India is not about to happen immediately, despite recent high-level talks between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi.

Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, delivered the update on Thursday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where trade ministers from the G20 have been meeting. While he described the negotiations as being in the "short strokes"—meaning they are near the end—he made it clear that a pen is not yet over the paper.

"I don't think there is something imminent," Greer said, though he added that negotiators have now clearly identified the "universe of items that are sticking points" and are working hard to resolve them.

What is holding up the deal?

The comments came just a day after President Trump and Prime Minister Modi spoke by phone, a conversation Greer described as "very constructive." They also followed face-to-face talks in Milwaukee between Greer and Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

While Goyal has been publicly optimistic, writing on social media about wrapping up an interim agreement quickly, independent observers suggest the remaining hurdles are the tallest. For Washington, India's continued imports of Russian oil are a persistent source of anger. The US administration believes these purchases are effectively funding the war in Ukraine.

The issue has already triggered trade penalties. Last August, Washington hit India with a 25% punitive tariff for its Russian oil purchases, pushing total duties on Indian imports to 50%. Trump reduced those duties to 18% in February after claiming New Delhi had agreed to halt Russian purchases and buy more energy from the US and Venezuela.

However, India has never confirmed that agreement. Indian officials maintain that domestic energy security is their only concern, and ongoing global oil supply strains have made it difficult for New Delhi to walk away from Russian crude.

Currently, Indian exports to the US face a baseline 10% tariff following a US investigation into forced labour, though key exports like smartphones and generic pharmaceuticals are exempt.

The competitive advantage

For its part, India is holding out for tariff concessions that would give its exporters an edge over regional rivals in the US market, such as Bangladesh, China, and ASEAN countries.

Goyal said in late September that the deal was "done and dusted," but made it clear that India would only sign once Washington granted the competitive advantages New Delhi is demanding.

With both sides holding firm on their core economic interests, a quick resolution remains unlikely. Analysts suggest that neither country is currently in a position to back down on these sensitive issues, nor are they ready to simply agree to disagree.

The next step is likely another direct discussion between the two leaders. Greer indicated that Trump and Modi may hold another phone call shortly to review where the negotiations stand.