Ethiopia Tigray fighting risks wider Horn of Africa war as regional rivals meet

Ethiopian federal forces have seized control of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, as a sudden flare-up of civil war threatens to drag the wider Horn of Africa into a dangerous regional conflict.

The federal push into the rebel stronghold coincided with a high-stakes gathering of Ethiopia's regional rivals. On Sunday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hosted the leaders of Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan in the coastal city of Alamein. All four nations have deeply strained relations with Addis Ababa, raising fears of a coordinated front against Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Why is there fighting in Tigray again?

The latest fighting began on 23 September, shattering a fragile peace that had largely held since the end of the devastating 2020–2022 civil war, which claimed more than 600,000 lives.

Government forces and allied militias entered Mekelle on Saturday without resistance after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) abandoned the city. While federal troops are now patrolling the streets and communication lines have been partially restored, residents report that shops remain shuttered and locals have had to organise their own security to prevent looting.

The peace remains highly precarious. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael has already hinted at a return to guerrilla tactics. 'We operate under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever we choose,' he warned.

Who are the regional rivals meeting in Egypt?

Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of actively backing the Tigrayan rebels, with the added support of Egypt and Sudan — accusations all three countries deny.

The geopolitical fallout has already severed direct diplomatic channels. Eritrea recently closed the Ethiopian embassy in Asmara and cut ties, while Egypt and Ethiopia have expelled each other's diplomats.

At the summit in Alamein, Egyptian President Sisi urged 'dialogue, not confrontation'. However, the regional alignment against Ethiopia is hardening. Landlocked Ethiopia has long sought direct access to the Red Sea, prompting Eritrea to accuse its neighbour of planning a military invasion of its coastline. Meanwhile, Egypt remains locked in a bitter, years-long dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Cairo views as an existential threat to its water security.

What does the conflict mean for Red Sea security?

The worsening crisis has alarmed international observers. The United States has urged both Ethiopia and Eritrea to show restraint before the conflict spills over borders.

The escalation also threatens to dismantle years of delicate Gulf diplomacy. In 2018, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates brokered the historic Jeddah Peace Agreement to end decades of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. That deal has now effectively collapsed.

With the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Red Sea shipping already under fire from Houthi rebels in Yemen, Gulf analysts warn that a state-level conflict on the African side of the water could destabilise one of the world's most critical maritime trade routes.