Ashley Hinson holds slim lead in Iowa Senate poll as Rob Sand edges governor contest

Iowa Senate and governor poll results

Republican Representative Ashley Hinson holds a narrow two-point lead over Democrat Josh Turek in the race for Iowa's open US Senate seat, while Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican opponent Zach Lahn in the governor contest, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey.

The poll of 650 likely voters, conducted on 5 and 6 October, puts Hinson at 47 per cent and Turek at 45 per cent in the Senate race. That two-point gap falls within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of error. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn received 2 per cent support, while 7 per cent of voters remain undecided.

Hinson's advantage has narrowed since September, when Emerson College Polling found her leading Turek by five points, 50 per cent to 45 per cent.

In the gubernatorial contest, Sand leads Lahn 49 per cent to 45 per cent, with 6 per cent undecided.

How Iowa voters divide by age and issue

The survey highlights a clear generational split across the state. According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, voters under 50 favour Democratic candidates by double-digit margins — backing Turek by 14 points on the Senate ballot and Sand by 15 points for governor.

Voters over 50 show a split pattern. While they support Hinson over Turek for Senate by 13 points, they favour Lahn over Sand by just five points on the governor ballot.

The economy remains the primary concern for 42 per cent of Iowans polled, up four points from August. Healthcare follows at 18 per cent, threats to democracy at 10 per cent, and education at 8 per cent.

Among voters who identified the economy as their chief concern, Hinson leads Turek 47 per cent to 43 per cent, but Sand leads Lahn 49 per cent to 46 per cent. Voters prioritising healthcare or threats to democracy favour Democratic candidates by double digits.

Trump approval and national politics

The survey reflects broader political headwinds for Republicans in Iowa. President Donald Trump's job approval in the state stands at 42 per cent, with 51 per cent of likely voters disapproving.

Iowa's agricultural sector has faced fallout from trade tariffs and the conflict in Iran. Hinson has taken steps to create distance from the administration on economic impacts, opposing plans to import beef to lower consumer prices and posting on social media that Iowans should not have to foot the bill at the pump or checkout line.