Nagaon Lok Sabha bypoll campaigning ends as BJP fights to wrest seat

Campaigning has ended for the Nagaon Lok Sabha by-election in Assam, setting up a fierce three-way contest. Voting is scheduled for October 6, with the counting of votes to follow on October 9.

This is the first significant electoral contest in Assam since the BJP-led alliance secured a third consecutive term in the state assembly elections earlier this year. The Nagaon seat became vacant in March when the sitting Congress MP, Pradyut Bordoloi, resigned from his party to join the BJP, later winning the Dispur assembly seat in April.

Redrawn boundaries and party confidence

The electoral map in Nagaon has been redrawn following the 2023 delimitation process. The constituency, which spans eight assembly segments across the Nagaon and Morigaon districts, now has an electorate of approximately 1.9 million, where Muslim voters comprise between 55% and 58%.

While Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma initially termed the seat a difficult one for the BJP due to this demographic makeup, his tone shifted as the campaign drew to a close. Sarma predicted that the BJP candidate would win by a margin of 250,000 to 300,000 votes.

The Congress is equally confident of holding onto its traditional turf. Gaurav Gogoi, the party's state president, accused the BJP of committing atrocities against tribal communities and religious and linguistic minorities by denying them land rights, asserting that voters would back the Congress to reject the ruling party.

Meanwhile, AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal, whose party has suffered recent electoral setbacks, claimed he was "110% confident" of winning, predicting a massive victory margin of one million votes.

The contenders in Nagaon

The ruling BJP has fielded Devasish Sharma, an IAS officer who served as the deputy commissioner of Nagaon until early September, when he took voluntary retirement to join the party.

He faces Congress candidate Sibamoni Bora, a 63-year-old former MLA and daughter-in-law of Assam’s first non-Congress chief minister, Golap Borbora.

The third major contender is perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, who has previously represented the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat. Ajmal is hoping to revive the fortunes of his party, which failed to win any seats in the 2024 general election and bagged only two in the state assembly polls.

Rajya Sabha selections

As the campaign in Assam closed, the BJP also finalised its candidates for upcoming Rajya Sabha contests scheduled for October 16.

The party’s central election committee approved Rukmini Mallick, the actor-turned-politician widely known as Koel Mallick, as its candidate for the West Bengal by-election. Mallick had resigned her seat in July after defecting from the Trinamool Congress to the BJP, which reportedly holds a clear majority in the West Bengal Assembly.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has nominated Dinesh Arya to contest the seat currently held by Naresh Bansal, whose term concludes on November 25. The October 16 elections will fill 12 Rajya Sabha vacancies across Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and West Bengal.