Ohio US Senate race sees massive Republican cash surge as Sherrod Brown leads polls

Republicans are pouring unprecedented sums and national heavyweights into Ohio, rushing to shore up incumbent Senator Jon Husted as private and public polling shows Democrat Sherrod Brown threatening to reclaim his old seat.

By Monday, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance will have made three joint or solo rally appearances in the state, including a Vance stop on Friday in Lima. The visits reflect growing national anxiety over a state Trump won comfortably three times, but where Republican control of the US Senate—currently held by a narrow 53-47 margin—is now on the line.

Money is flooding the airwaves at record levels. By the end of last month, campaigns and outside groups had spent $250 million on broadcast advertising, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, with another $140 million reserved for the final five weeks. Republican groups account for the bulk of that spending, attempting to counter a souring public mood over inflation and the cost of living.

What the polls say

A CNN survey of likely Ohio voters showed Brown leading Husted by six percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent. A New York Times and Siena University poll conducted in late September also gave Brown a three-point cushion. A co/efficient poll offered better news for Republicans, placing Husted ahead by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent, well within its 3.5-point margin of error.

The race is considered a toss-up by nonpartisan analysts at the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber—where Vance holds the casting vote in a tie—Ohio has become essential terrain.

The arguments on the ground

Republicans are working aggressively to turn out conservative voters. Donovan O’Neil, senior adviser for Americans for Prosperity Action, said his group and affiliated canvassers have knocked on more than 700,000 doors across Ohio for Husted.

Husted, who was appointed to the Senate after Vance became vice president, told reporters in Delaware County that momentum had shifted in his favour over the past month. At rallies, Vance has painted Brown as an out-of-touch partisan who funnels public money to fraudsters.

Brown, who served in the Senate from 2007 until his defeat in 2024, is running heavily against corporate interests and federal policy. He pointed to rising petrol prices, local disputes over tax breaks for artificial intelligence data centres, and Husted’s past ties to utility FirstEnergy.

"Jon Husted puts corporations and billionaires first every time, and we all pay for it," Brown’s campaign said in a statement, arguing that the visits from Trump and Vance would not erase voter fatigue with rising prices.

Early voting is already under way, with more than 120,000 ballots cast by Friday, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s office. Whether the deluge of late advertising can blunt Brown’s lead will become clear over the next four weeks.