Texas Senate race: Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in new polls

Democrat James Talarico has taken a surprising lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, shaking up a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly forty years.

A Fox News poll of likely voters conducted in late September shows Talarico leading Paxton by 51% to 49%. While that two-point lead is within the margin of error, another poll by the New York Times and Siena University puts Talarico six points ahead. The shifts have renewed questions over whether Democrats can break a historic losing streak in Texas, which last elected a Democratic senator, Lloyd Bentsen, in 1988.

The tightening race is less about a sudden blue wave in Texas and more about Paxton’s deep unpopularity and fractures within the Republican electorate. Talarico holds an eight-point net positive rating, with 52% of likely voters viewing him favourably. Paxton, by contrast, is sitting at a net negative 18 points, with 58% of voters viewing him unfavourably. The Fox News poll reveals that Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavourably than Democrats are to view Talarico unfavourably.

Paxton is also struggling to hold his base. Around 20% of voters who backed Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary have crossed over to support Talarico. Non-MAGA Republicans are also five times more likely to back the Democrat than their MAGA counterparts.

Talarico has built a strong lead among moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), voters under 35 (62%), and Black voters (79%). Paxton’s support remains concentrated among rural voters, white evangelicals, and white men without college degrees.

Economic anxiety is also playing into Talarico's hands. Seven in ten Texans call the cost of living extremely important to their vote. Those who feel they are falling behind financially back the Democrat by a 32-point margin, whereas those getting ahead favour Paxton by 48 points. Trump’s popularity is also dragging on the Republican ticket, with a Texas Southern University survey showing his approval rating seven points underwater.

The national outlook

This unexpected battle in Texas comes as Democrats look increasingly likely to win back the US House of Representatives in the November midterms, while the Senate remains a tight contest.

Major analytical models give Democrats a strong lead in the race for the House. Nate Silver's forecast gives them an 86% chance of winning, while Decision Desk HQ puts their chances at 75%, projecting they will take 234 seats to the Republicans' 201.

The Senate, however, is a coin-flip. Out of the 35 seats up for grabs, Republicans are defending 22. Democrats must hold their existing 13 seats and flip four Republican ones to reach a 51-seat majority. Analysts at the Cook Political Report have identified seven 'coin-flip' races that will decide control of the chamber. Along with Texas, these critical battlegrounds include Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Ohio.