Donald Trump rules out US military strikes on Iran before midterm elections

President Donald Trump has ruled out launching any US military strikes against Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November, temporarily easing fears of a major escalation in the Middle East.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump declared that the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" and claimed that Washington is currently engaged in "productive discussions" with Tehran.

The announcement represents a swift turnaround. Just a day earlier, Trump told reporters that his administration was actively considering renewed strikes before voters head to the polls. That warning helped drive oil prices higher, with Brent crude jumping more than 4 per cent to top $104 a barrel on Thursday.

Despite the sudden dip in military rhetoric, Trump emphasised that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in full force. He also reiterated his long-standing vow that Tehran "will not have a nuclear weapon".

Why did Trump rule out an Iran attack?

Domestic political pressures appear to be driving the administration's tactical retreat. With the midterms less than four weeks away, public support for the war is slipping. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in August showed that only 31 per cent of Americans support military action against Iran, down from 37 per cent in March. At the same time, 83 per cent of those polled expect a long, drawn-out conflict.

The economic fallout of the war has also hit voters directly. Republican candidates are facing intense pressure over the cost of living, which polls consistently rank as the top voter concern. Gas prices have soared by roughly 40 per cent over the past year, with the US national average reaching $4.36 a gallon on Thursday, compared to $2.98 before the conflict began in late February. Several GOP candidates in tight congressional races have sought to distance themselves from Trump because of the ongoing war.

By pledging to hold off on strikes, Trump may be trying to neutralise the war as an election-year liability. However, his statement leaves the door wide open for renewed military action once voting concludes.

How did the conflict reach this point?

The war began on 28 February 2026, when joint US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting Tehran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint.

A brief ceasefire in April, brokered during peace talks in Pakistan, quickly fell apart. Though Trump briefly announced a deal to lift the blockade in June, fighting flared up again in July, prompting the US to reinstate its naval blockade on 14 July.

Diplomatic efforts have stalled since. Late last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposed a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz at the UN General Assembly, on the condition that the US lift its blockade and waive sanctions on Iranian oil. Trump rejected the proposal on 26 September, claiming Iran was offering a deal only because it was "losing so badly."

In his latest social media post, Trump claimed that 22 million barrels of oil successfully moved through the Strait of Hormuz overnight, with none going to or coming from Iran. That figure has not been independently verified.

While Trump insists that "productive discussions" are happening, the core dispute remains unresolved. Iran wants any talks to begin with lifting the blockade, while Washington refuses to budge until Tehran makes major nuclear concessions.