Latvia election delivers bittersweet victory for PM Andris Kulbergs amid Russia tensions

A fractured parliament

Prime Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs has secured a bittersweet victory in Latvia's general election, emerging as the frontrunner but facing a highly fractured parliament and deep public anxiety over both national security and the rising cost of living.

While the Prime Minister's party led the polls, the narrow margin of victory means he now faces weeks of difficult negotiations to build a stable governing majority in the Saeima, Latvia's parliament. These coalition talks will play out in a climate of domestic unease, with voters increasingly squeezed by high inflation and economic stagnation.

Throughout the campaign, opposition parties capitalised on voters' financial anxieties, arguing that the government has focused too heavily on defence at the expense of domestic social welfare. Finding a balance between funding national defence and offering relief to households struggling with high energy bills will be the new coalition’s first major test.

Standing firm against Moscow

Despite the domestic political fragmentation, Latvia’s hawkish foreign policy toward Moscow is expected to remain firm. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Riga has positioned itself as one of Europe's most vocal advocates for robust Western military support and aggressive sanctions against the Kremlin.

However, maintaining this united international front is becoming increasingly complex for Baltic leaders. Frontline states like Latvia view any dilution of Western resolve with deep concern, seeing it as a direct threat to regional deterrence.

A clear example of this tension emerged recently when the European Union removed Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from its sanctions list. The move, which followed behind-the-scenes lobbying by France, was met with quiet frustration in Baltic capitals, where any easing of pressure on Russian oligarchs is viewed as a compromise on European security.

Deterrence without panic

For now, Kulbergs is striking a careful balance between maintaining high military vigilance and preventing public panic.

In an interview with The Baltic Sentinel, the Prime Minister argued that Russia currently lacks the military capacity to launch an attack on the Baltic states without undergoing a full-scale domestic mobilisation. This assessment suggests that while the long-term threat from Moscow remains a defining feature of Latvian political life, immediate military conflict is highly unlikely.

Rather than preparing for an imminent invasion, Latvia's defence strategy remains focused on long-term deterrence. The country continues to integrate closely with NATO's enhanced forward presence and invest heavily in its own border defences.

The incoming government's main challenge will not be fighting an immediate war, but managing a protracted regional crisis. Kulbergs must convince a nervous public that Latvia can remain secure without sacrificing its economic future.