Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro close campaigns ahead of tense Brazil presidential election

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro have wrapped up their campaigns in the powerhouse state of Sao Paulo, making final appeals to voters ahead of Sunday's high-stakes presidential election.

Opinion polls show a tight race, suggesting that neither the 80-year-old leftist incumbent nor his 45-year-old right-wing challenger will secure the 50 per cent of valid votes needed for an outright win. That would push Latin America's largest economy into a head-to-head run-off on 25 October.

Lula closed his campaign on Saturday with a march through the streets of Sao Paulo, calling the election a choice between "democracy and barbarism" and vowing to defeat the far right. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, echoed his father's campaign style by leading a motorcade through Sao Paulo state before rallying supporters in Rio de Janeiro.

The shadow of Jair Bolsonaro

The younger Bolsonaro has focused much of his campaign on his father's legacy, promising to secure his release from prison. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss, though he is currently under house arrest due to recurrent health issues.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also adopted his father's strategy of questioning the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system, raising concerns among analysts that he may be laying the groundwork to contest the result if he loses.

The Trump factor and foreign influence

The shadow of US politics has hung over the campaign. Flavio Bolsonaro has positioned himself as a close ally of US President Donald Trump, who has said he is watching the election "very closely."

Lula, conversely, has warned against foreign "meddling" and criticised Washington's recent actions, including tariffs on Brazilian exports and sanctions placed on a Brazilian Supreme Court justice.

"Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard," Lula told the United Nations General Assembly last month, warning that he would not tolerate foreign interference in the democratic process.

Corruption scandal disrupts the final stretch

A financial scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro has disrupted the final weeks of campaigning for both sides. Federal police are investigating Flavio Bolsonaro for corruption and money laundering over the financing of a biopic about his father, "Dark Horse", after voice recordings emerged of him asking Vorcaro for 134 million reais (£19.5 million).

The scandal has also touched Lula’s allies. A police report suggested Vorcaro had contacted Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—the judge who led the investigation into the elder Bolsonaro—asking for help to avoid arrest. Moraes has denied any wrongdoing, but the connection has given the right-wing opposition fresh ammunition.

"Voting for Lula means voting for Moraes," Flavio Bolsonaro told his supporters at a rally, targeting the right's intense dislike of the judge.

What else is on the ballot?

Almost 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday, with voting compulsory for literate citizens between 18 and 70.

Beyond the presidency, voters will select 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal congressmen, and 54 of the country's 81 senators.