Kalshi investigates suspicious bets on Donald Trump press secretary pick Katie Zacharia

Prediction market Kalshi has launched an investigation into several highly profitable, last-minute wagers placed on Katie Zacharia to become Donald Trump's new White House press secretary, shortly before her appointment was officially announced.

The probe, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, centres on at least three small bets placed on the platform when Zacharia was still considered a massive longshot. Before the news broke, Kalshi traders had given her only about a 1% chance of securing the high-profile communications role.

The trades, made on Thursday night and Friday morning, are set to turn less than $175 of risk into nearly $10,000 in combined payouts.

What are the suspicious trades?

The specific transactions under investigation include:

• A $19 wager placed late on Thursday night that is set to pay out $1,896.
• A $74 bet placed on Friday morning that is expected to return $3,689.
• An $80 bet, also placed on Friday, that is lined up to pay $4,023.

Shortly after these bets were locked in, news emerged that Zacharia, a conservative commentator who previously had a brief stint at the Department of Homeland Security, had indeed been selected for the job.

While the market contract has officially settled as a "Yes" victory for Zacharia, it remains unclear whether Kalshi has placed any restrictions on the accounts trying to withdraw these specific winnings. A spokesperson for Kalshi confirmed the investigation to the Wall Street Journal, though the company did not comment further when asked by other outlets.

Why does this matter for prediction markets?

The suspicious activity points to a persistent vulnerability for prediction markets, which allow users to wager on real-world political, regulatory, and financial outcomes. Because these platforms rely on public information to price contracts fairly, they are highly sensitive to individuals who might trade on non-public, "inside" information before official announcements are made.

On a contract where a candidate has a 1% chance of winning, shares trade for pennies. This allows anyone with early knowledge to secure massive leverage and outsized payouts for very little upfront cost.

This is not the first time the Trump administration's orbit has drawn scrutiny on betting platforms. In July, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched an investigation into Trump's teleprompter operator over potential insider trading.

As platforms like Kalshi gain mainstream popularity and trade volumes grow, regulators and market operators are facing increasing pressure to police trades that look a little too well-timed to be mere luck. Whether the traders in this case simply had an incredibly sharp hunch or possessed early knowledge of Zacharia's appointment is what Kalshi's compliance team is now trying to determine.