NFL tells Supreme Court sports prediction markets are gambling and need state regulation

The NFL has urged the US Supreme Court to rule that sports prediction markets are a form of gambling, arguing they should be regulated by individual states rather than left solely to federal oversight.

In a legal brief backing New Jersey regulators in their dispute with trading platform Kalshi, the football league warned that these rapidly growing markets pose a risk to the integrity of professional sports. The NFL pointed to the sheer scale of the activity, noting that on the first Sunday of the current season, football contracts drove $1.8 billion in trading volume—more than half of the total market.

Kalshi and other prediction platforms have long argued that their contracts are financial swaps, placing them under the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). But the NFL contends that this setup bypasses traditional state-level protections.

"In the end, we believe that given the current resource constraints of the CFTC, this is a job better left to the states," the league told CNBC.

Concerns over manipulation and age limits

In its Supreme Court filing, the NFL questioned what constitutional authority Congress has to override the traditional power of states to police gambling within their borders.

The league's concerns focus on specific bets that could easily be manipulated by players or insiders. These include spot-bets on whether a kicker will intentionally miss a field goal, whether a wide receiver will intentionally fumble, or trades tied to injuries and officiating decisions.

Age limits are another point of contention. While state sports betting laws typically require bettors to be at least 21 years old, users as young as 18 can trade on Kalshi.

The NFL stated that neither federal regulators nor the platforms have addressed these worries. "Neither the CFTC nor the prediction market companies themselves—despite our persistent urging—have banned categories of bets susceptible to manipulation or set a 21 age limit," the league said.

Where other leagues stand

While the NFL maintains an advertising ban on prediction platforms and refuses to partner with them, other major sports organisations have taken a different path.

The NHL has deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, while Major League Baseball, Major League Soccer, and the UFC have partnered with Polymarket. The NBA and PGA Tour have joined the NFL in holding out.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell defended the league's cautious approach during an interview in September.

"We don't feel like we have to be the first in this," Goodell said. "We feel like we're going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient."

The Supreme Court's involvement comes after federal appeals courts have split over whether state gambling laws can take precedence over CFTC regulations.