The India Decade

Case studyWorld

How do shipping companies reroute around the Strait of Hormuz?

Fleets adapt to chokepoint closures through overland cross-peninsular pipelines, offshore ship-to-ship transfers, and long detours around the Cape of Good Hope.

By The India DecadeReviewed
Map: Strait of Hormuz · “Map: Strait of Hormuz” by © OpenStreetMap contributors, Geoapify (ODBL) via OpenStreetMap

The short answer

When military conflict halts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, commercial shipping fleets and energy exporters cannot simply choose an alternative sea channel out of the Persian Gulf, as the strait is the sole maritime exit. Instead, exporters rely on overland cross-peninsular pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports, and offshore ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Long-haul container lines bypass the region entirely by sailing around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding ten to fourteen days to voyages. However, because liquefied natural gas and heavy bulk commodities lack adequate pipeline capacity, maritime detours remain an imperfect workaround hampered by surging insurance rates and physical infrastructure bottlenecks.

97% reduction
Strait traffic decline
United Nations data, September 2026
Over 70% drop
Saudi export drop
LSEG Data & Analytics / Al Jazeera, September 2026
Up to 300% increase
Insurance surge
Ynetnews reporting, September 2026
4–5 million bpd
Pipeline capacity lost
The Associated Press, September 2026
One-third of global supply
Global fertiliser transit
Kpler, September 2026

What's happening now

Prompted by Two ships sink near Strait of Hormuz as attacks on commercial vessels intensify

Following the onset of the United States-Israel war against Iran on 28 February 2026, commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 97 per cent, according to United Nations figures. The 39-kilometre-wide waterway normally handles approximately one-fifth of the world's petroleum and liquefied natural gas. Threat warnings from Iran's Revolutionary Guard and missile strikes targeting commercial vessels have effectively shuttered normal traffic through the Persian Gulf.

The logistical crisis reached a critical peak in September 2026 after two commercial ships, including a carrier carrying 2,500 containers, were sunk near the strait. Marine war-risk insurance premiums surged by up to 300 per cent, prompting international container operators and tanker owners to suspend standard sailings through the corridor.

Energy exporters attempting to use overland bypasses have encountered immediate physical limits. Drone attacks in mid-September 2026 damaged a section of Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, taking 4 to 5 million barrels per day of transport capacity offline. Regional officials told The Associated Press that repairs would require three to five weeks, leaving Saudi crude loadings down to 2.1 million barrels per day in early September 2026 compared to over 7.5 million barrels per day earlier in the year.

How global shipping adapts when Hormuz is blocked

  1. Overland pipeline redirection

    Producers pump crude oil westwards across land through pipelines, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West line to Yanbu on the Red Sea, enabling tankers to load crude without entering the Persian Gulf.

  2. Offshore transshipment

    Shuttle tankers run short journeys inside the Gulf to transfer crude onto larger vessels anchored outside the strait, near Sohar in Oman, often turning off location transponders to evade tracking.

  3. Cape of Good Hope rerouting

    Container lines and bulk carriers traveling between Asia, Europe, and the Americas bypass Middle Eastern chokepoints completely, routing around the southern tip of Africa at the cost of additional sailing time.

  4. Naval escort arrangements

    Navies coordinate guarded maritime convoys through high-risk zones, providing anti-missile and air defence coverage for flagged commercial vessels.

  5. State-backed insurance guarantees

    Governments step in with emergency sovereign guarantees or public indemnities when private marine insurers limit war-risk coverage or raise premiums beyond viable operational levels.

Who it affects

India is directly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports. Indian refiners import a substantial share of their raw energy requirements through Persian Gulf ports, while Indian agricultural suppliers depend on imported chemical inputs from the region. Extended closures push up freight costs and import bills for Indian industry.

Globally, the closure of Hormuz reverberates through food and energy security networks. Data from analytics firm Kpler shows that roughly one-third of global trade in fertilisers, including sulfur and ammonia, normally moves through the strait. Prolonged blockades risk triggering global food supply stresses alongside rising oil prices.

Unlike oil, which can occasionally be diverted to overland pipelines, liquefied natural gas has no equivalent alternative transit infrastructure. Importers in Asia and Europe dependent on Middle Eastern natural gas face structural supply shortages whenever the strait is blocked for an extended period.

What's being done, and is it working

  • Institution

    US Department of Defense

    Evaluating naval escort options for commercial tankers navigating through the Strait of Hormuz.

    US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine stated options remain under active review following a 97 per cent drop in vessel traffic.

    Too early to say

  • Institution

    US International Development Finance Corporation

    Offering financial guarantees and risk insurance to shipping companies operating in the region.

    Despite government backstops, commercial war-risk insurance premiums increased by up to 300 per cent and major carriers continue to avoid the passage.

    Mixed results

  • Market

    Saudi Aramco and regional producers

    Utilising ship-to-ship cargo transfers off Sohar in Oman and off-grid shuttle tankers to export crude.

    LSEG Data & Analytics reported Saudi crude loadings dropped over 70 per cent by September 2026 despite off-grid transshipment operations.

    Mixed results

  • Institution

    European and Asian navies

    Discussing multi-nation joint maritime security missions to safeguard commercial corridors.

    French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that international patrol missions cannot deploy until active regional military conflict ends.

    Not working

What you can do

  1. Check official maritime trade advisories from national shipping registers before booking Middle Eastern cargo slots.

  2. Incorporate a ten to fourteen day contingency buffer into global supply chain timelines to account for Cape detours.

  3. Verify that commercial freight insurance agreements include explicit war-risk coverage for transits near active conflict zones.

  4. Diversify energy and raw material procurement across multiple geographic regions to reduce single-chokepoint exposure.

What we still don't know

  • How rapidly cross-country pipeline infrastructure can be restored when subjected to ongoing drone and missile attacks.
  • Whether naval escort systems can offer practical protection to commercial ships without triggering direct military escalation.
  • How severely prolonged disruptions in fertiliser transit will affect global agricultural yields over subsequent harvest cycles.

Questions readers ask

Why can't ships take another sea passage out of the Persian Gulf?

The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea passage exiting the Persian Gulf. Ports located in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and eastern Saudi Arabia have no other direct maritime access to the open ocean.

How much extra time does bypassing Middle Eastern chokepoints take?

Rerouting around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope generally adds ten to fourteen days to a typical voyage between Asia and Europe. This detour increases fuel consumption and overall shipping rates.

Can pipelines completely replace shipping through the strait?

No. Pipelines like Saudi Arabia's East-West line can carry several million barrels per day overland, but total Gulf exports far exceed pipeline capacity. Pipelines are also vulnerable to military and drone strikes.

Sources

  1. From Yanbu to Sohar: Tracking Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil routesAl Jazeera · Saudi pipeline capacity figures, crude export reduction data, details on ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar
  2. Why is it difficult to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz?Ynetnews · UN traffic reduction statistics, insurance price surges, military escort discussions, fertiliser transit statistics
  3. Conflict-Driven Chokepoint DisruptionsCouncil on Foreign Relations · Analysis of LNG vulnerability, rerouting cost increases, and general maritime chokepoint risks

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