India winter crops at risk as strengthening El Nino dries out soil
A weak monsoon and record-breaking heat have depleted reservoirs and left half the country facing drought conditions just as planting begins.
Indian farmers are heading into the upcoming winter sowing season under severe environmental strain, as a strengthening El Nino weather pattern and parched soils threaten to disrupt crop yields and squeeze water supplies across the country.
The warning signs follow a weak southwest monsoon, which wrapped up with a 12.6% rainfall deficit—making it the fourth-driest monsoon since 2001. This shortfall, compounded by a record-hot September that saw the highest average maximum temperatures since 1901, has left nearly half of India's land area under some degree of drought.
Sowing under stress
The winter, or rabi, season is vital for India's food security, accounting for about half of its annual foodgrain production. While wheat—the season's dominant crop—is largely protected by extensive irrigation systems, other essential crops are highly vulnerable.
Gram and jowar, which rely heavily on residual monsoon moisture in the soil, face the greatest risk. Less than 52% of gram acreage and only 25% of jowar fields have access to irrigation. Agricultural analysts warn that rainfed farmers in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan may have to delay sowing, reduce their crop acreage, or abandon these crops entirely.
Residual moisture is under strain in key rainfed belts of the southern peninsula and central India. Experts warn that a dry October coupled with a strengthening El Nino could spell serious trouble for the establishment of these winter crops.
Drying reservoirs
The backup option for farmers—the country's network of reservoirs—is also running low. Nationwide water storage in major reservoirs is down 20% compared to this time last year.
The situation is most critical in southern India, where reservoirs are holding just 49.2% of their capacity, compared to nearly 88% a year ago. Former agriculture secretary Devesh Choudhary warned that this storage gap will hit southern rabi crops particularly hard, driving up irrigation costs and lowering productivity.
The local crisis is already visible in places like the Dharmavaram division of Andhra Pradesh. Severe water shortages have left long-duration sweet lime orchards withering. To prevent the permanent loss of these orchards, local authorities have stepped in with emergency measures, promising farmers a subsidy of ₹800 per water tanker to keep their trees alive.
Government shifting strategy
With the India Meteorological Department predicting below-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures through December, the central government is urging states to adapt quickly.
At a national rabi conference in Delhi, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan called on state administrations in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh to draft custom farming plans based on local water availability.
In heavily water-stressed districts, officials are advising farmers to steer clear of water-thirsty crops like wheat and instead sow drought-resistant pulses and oilseeds. Meanwhile, states with healthier water reserves, including Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, are being asked to ramp up their production to offset potential shortages elsewhere.
Key numbers
| What | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Southwest monsoon rainfall deficit | 12.6% | India Meteorological Department |
| Southern reservoir capacity | 49.2% | Central reservoir data |
| Water tanker subsidy for Dharmavaram orchards | ₹800 per tanker | District Collector Shyam Prasad |
