UK weather: Met Office says warm September puts 2026 on track for record heat

September 2026 was the joint-fourth warmest September on record in the UK, provisional Met Office figures show, continuing an unbroken eight-month streak of above-average temperatures this year.

The mean temperature for the month was 14.6C, which is 1.6C higher than the long-term average. The consistently mild weather means 2026 is firmly on track to be among the warmest years ever recorded in the UK. Unless the remaining months of the year turn out to be extraordinarily cold, 2026 is highly likely to challenge 2025, which currently holds the record as the UK's warmest year.

Why 2026 is tracking so high

Using the Central England Temperature dataset—the world’s oldest instrumental record, dating back to the 17th century—every single month of 2026 has been warmer than average. Currently, the year-to-date average in this dataset is running 2.6C above normal.

Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate scientist, said the persistent warmth fits into a wider shift. "This fits with the general pattern that we're seeing of more frequent above-average temperatures in the UK as our climate continues to change," he said.

The warmth was not evenly distributed. England experienced its third warmest September, Northern Ireland its fourth, and Wales its joint-sixth. Northern Ireland also recorded its latest day on record with temperatures exceeding 25C, when Helen's Bay reached 25.5C on 21 September. Earlier in the month, Northolt in London hit 28.6C on 6 September.

Ongoing drought concerns

While the month felt unsettled and ordinary to many, the dry conditions from the summer have not eased. September brought near-average rainfall overall, but the vast majority of it fell in Scotland. Eastern and south-east England remained dry.

This rainfall imbalance has done little to help a country recovering from a scorching summer, during which heatwaves pushed more than 70 per cent of the UK into official drought conditions.

Philip Duffy, chief executive of the Environment Agency, warned that the public should not assume the water crisis is over just because autumn has arrived. "September’s rainfall has been welcome, but a few weeks of unsettled weather is nowhere near enough to reverse the water deficits caused by a dry spring and record hot summer," Duffy said.

Duffy added that reservoirs remain concerningly low and groundwater levels are still depleted. "Drought is only over when groundwater, rivers, and reservoirs are back to normal levels – and that will take months of significant and sustained wet weather."

What happens next

The unusual warmth is expected to persist into the winter. The Met Office has forecast that the rest of autumn and the start of winter are likely to remain warmer than average, driven in part by a powerful El Niño system in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

While this natural warming of sea surface temperatures is expected to raise global temperatures further into next year, some meteorologists have warned it could bring unpredictable weather to the UK. Stormy, wet conditions in late autumn could eventually transition into a sharp, icy winter as the weather system peaks.