Andy Burnham wins over drifting voters at Labour conference but faces battle over pensions

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the Labour Party, winning back drifting voters with a highly personal speech at the party's annual conference in Liverpool. The performance has transformed the mood of a party that, until Burnham’s takeover earlier this summer, had been struggling to shake off a sense of drift under Sir Keir Starmer.

For a prime minister still in his honeymoon period, the early feedback is highly encouraging. In a focus group of 2024 Labour voters who had since drifted towards the Conservatives, Reform UK, and the Greens, Burnham’s speech was met with a level of warmth unseen since the early days of the pandemic. Focus group participants described him as "relatable" and "one of us," praising his willingness to show a human side, particularly when he spoke emotionally about the recent death of his father. This stood in stark contrast to Starmer, whose post-election tenure was described by one participant as a "shambles."

The battle over the pensions triple lock

But behind the conference euphoria, Burnham faces immediate policy battles that threaten to test his appeal. The most controversial proposal in his speech was a plan to reform the pensions triple lock to help fund a national social care system.

The backlash was swift. Sharon Graham, the leader of the Unite union, immediately opposed the move, raising fears that the government is taking money away from pensioners. Economists are also highly sceptical. James Meadway argued that the plan is built on shaky economics and is unlikely to raise the necessary cash, pointing out that the British state pension is already among the lowest in Europe relative to average earnings.

Furthermore, Paul Johnson, the former chief of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned that because reforming the triple lock would not fund social care in the near term, taxes would inevitably have to rise to cover the shortfall. That is a red line for many of the very voters Burnham is trying to keep on side. In the focus group, participants flatly rejected paying more income tax, warning it would force people to emigrate or leave them unable to afford a decent standard of living.

Reopening the Brexit debate

Burnham’s pledge to revisit the UK’s relationship with the European Union is also fraught with difficulty. While there is a widespread belief among the focus group that Brexit has been a failure, voters remain highly nervous about the specifics of any renegotiation. Even those who voted to remain expressed concern that the UK would end up with a worse deal as punishment from Brussels.

What happens next

The Liverpool conference was undoubtedly a triumph of tone, with even some left-wing trade unionists welcoming Burnham's willingness to treat them as "critical friends" rather than hostile opponents.

Burnham told the conference he expects to pay a "political price" for his radical agenda. To maintain his lead in the polls, he will have to convince voters that his message of hope is worth the cost.