Latino voters swing back to Democrats as Trump support slumps, poll shows

A new poll shows that Latino voters are swinging back to the Democratic Party in huge numbers ahead of the midterm elections, reversing years of hard-won Republican gains.

The survey, jointly conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters, reveals a sharp drop in support for Donald Trump, whose approval rating among Latino voters has slumped to just 27 per cent. Latino voters now say they prefer Democratic control of Congress by a 24-point margin—59 per cent to 35 per cent. That is double the lead Democrats held at the same point in 2024.

For Republicans, who had built their strategy to defend the House majority around locking in Trump’s 2024 gains with Hispanic communities, the findings are a major setback. The shift could throw competitive, heavily Latino congressional districts in states like Texas, Florida, and Nevada back into play.

Why are Latino voters shifting away from Trump?

Much of the frustration stems from the household budget. While Latino voters gave Trump a slight edge on the economy two years ago, they now trust Democrats to handle the issue by a 21-point margin.

The cost of living has emerged as the defining issue for these voters. A third of those surveyed called inflation their single biggest concern, and more than half ranked it in their top two. Nearly two-thirds of families say their income is falling behind the cost of living, and 65 per cent believe the president's economic policies have actively harmed their household finances. Among independents, that figure rises to 72 per cent.

"It was a big deal when we voted for Republicans, and then we feel like it was a complete mistake," Luisa Santiago, a 59-year-old retiree from Florida, told NBC News in an interview after participating in the survey. Having voted for Trump in 2024, she now describes him as a disappointment.

What is the backlash over immigration enforcement?

The administration's hardline approach to immigration is also alienating voters. While there is strong support for deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes—backed by 83 per cent of respondents—only 37 per cent support a blanket deportation of everyone in the country illegally.

Two-thirds of Latino voters say Trump’s deportation measures have gone too far. The anxiety is felt personally: 31 per cent say they or someone close to them has started carrying identification out of fear of immigration enforcement, and nearly one in five has considered leaving the United States entirely.

Maria, a Florida voter in her 20s who supported Trump in 2024, told NBC News that the president had fallen short of his promises. She said family members with proper paperwork had been deported, adding: "They were supposed to be here... and now they can never come back."

How will this shift affect the midterm elections?

The pollsters who conducted the survey describe the findings as a stunning turnaround. Micah Roberts, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies who co-conducted the poll, said the data suggest Trump's strong performance with Latino voters in 2024 may have been an "outlier" driven by his unique presence.

However, the shift does not mean Democrats have won these voters over for good. While negative views of the Republican Party have surged to 62 per cent—a 16-point jump in two years—feelings towards Democrats have not improved, with 42 per cent still viewing the party unfavourably.

"Any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats," said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster who co-led the study.

The NBC News/Telemundo poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters between 21 and 28 September. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.