US midterms put Trump's congressional majorities at risk as cost of living bites

American voters will decide control of both chambers of Congress on 3 November, in a ballot that threatens to derail the remainder of Donald Trump's second term.

At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, alongside closely watched governor contests in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan. The Republican Party currently holds power in both chambers, but its grip is precarious. In the House, Republicans hold just 218 seats — the exact minimum needed for a majority — backed by one independent. In the Senate, they hold 53, where 51 guarantees control.

Inflation and household budgets take centre stage

The central battleground for voters remains the cost of living. Household budgets have been squeezed by the stubborn price of fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare. Inflation continues to run higher than the US Federal Reserve's target, driven in part by the conflict started with Iran in February by the US and Israel. Democrats have tied price pressures directly to Trump's tariff policies, arguing that import levies have penalised ordinary consumers.

Republicans, meanwhile, are centering their pitch on immigration. The party points to border enforcement and a sweeping federal crackdown on undocumented migrants as fulfilled campaign pledges from 2024. Yet Trump's personal standing has deteriorated. After entering office with an approval rating just above 50%, tracker data from Silver Bulletin put his support at roughly 37% by early October, with 61% disapproving of his performance.

The seats that will decide control

While historical patterns favour the opposition party during midterms, the contest will be decided in a handful of swing districts and states. A CBS News analysis singled out nine competitive Senate races — including contests in Iowa and New Hampshire — alongside 42 critical House seats in states such as Arizona and Ohio. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is locked in a tight race against Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate.

Redistricting has made the outcome harder to forecast. Both parties spent months locked in legal and legislative disputes over electoral boundaries, redrawing House maps to lock in advantages where they hold state power.

New policy rifts have also surfaced late in the campaign. Artificial intelligence regulation has emerged as an urgent cross-party issue on Capitol Hill. Senior figures in both parties have backed federal limits on AI development, directly contradicting Trump, who has opposed statutory controls on the sector.

What happens next for the White House

If Democrats flip either chamber, Trump's legislative agenda will grind to a halt. A Democratic-led House or Senate would gain subpoena power, opening the door to congressional committee inquiries into White House ethics, the construction of a new White House ballroom and Immigration and Customs Enforcement tactics.

Democratic strategists are also debating whether to pursue impeachment proceedings, which would force a political trial even if a conviction remains improbable.

Trump has urged his supporters to treat the election as a direct referendum on his presidency, even though he cannot run for a third term in 2028. A Republican victory would allow him to push forward unchecked. A loss in either chamber would instantly transform the remainder of his term into a defensive battle, setting off an early scramble within both parties to choose his successor.