Bay of Bengal low pressure system expected to intensify into cyclonic storm by October 26

A low-pressure system that formed over the Bay of Bengal on Friday morning is expected to strengthen into a cyclonic storm by Monday, 26 October, bringing widespread heavy rainfall and strong winds to coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system formed at around 5:30 am on Friday over the east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, triggered by an upper-air cyclonic circulation. Forecasters expect it to intensify into a depression by Saturday, 24 October, before developing into a deep depression on Sunday and a full-fledged cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning.

System trajectory and potential impact

The storm is projected to move west-northwest towards the northern coast of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha over the subsequent two days. P.L.N. Murthy, head of the IMD Cyclone Warning Centre in Visakhapatnam, stated that if current tracks hold, the system could make landfall somewhere between Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam.

Weather models currently present varying assessments of the storm's ultimate strength. The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre noted that traditional physical models, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a very severe cyclonic storm, whereas artificial intelligence-based tracking models indicate a standard cyclonic storm.

Timeline of storm development

Proactive disaster management and safety measures

State administration mechanisms have swung into action to prepare coastal communities for the impending storm. Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) Managing Director Prakhar Jain urged farmers and the general public to take timely precautions, advising fishermen who are currently at sea to return to the coast immediately.

The IMD's Amaravati centre has issued a heavy rain alert for 27 and 28 October, placing districts including Alluri Sitharama Raju, Kakinada, East Godavari, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari, NTR, and the Yanam region under an elevated warning state. A secondary watch covers 10 further districts, including Visakhapatnam.

Recent rainfall figures released by authorities highlight the pre-cyclonic weather activity already sweeping across southern coastal belts:

Disaster authorities continue to advise residents in vulnerable areas to avoid staying under trees, temporary structures, or exposed metallic frames during thunderous downpours.