Xi Jinping's first India visit since 2019 sparks hopes for thaw in strained relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Delhi for the BRICS summit, marking his first visit to India in seven years. A highly anticipated meeting between Mr Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to take place on Saturday on the sidelines of the two-day gathering, potentially signalling a further, albeit cautious, thaw in bilateral relations.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, said on Friday that China is willing to work with India to manage their relationship from “a strategic height and long-term perspective.” This statement comes as both nations look to continue a gradual normalisation of ties, which have been strained since a deadly military clash along their disputed Himalayan border six years ago. Flights, visas, and high-level contacts have slowly been restored between the rival neighbours.

The BRICS summit, which has expanded to include 11 nations, is set to be dominated by significant global challenges, including the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the far-reaching impact of US policies, especially under President Donald Trump. Leaders from countries including Russia, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, and Iran are participating, with Saudi Arabia attending as an invited member.

However, the expanded nature of BRICS also presents a challenge for consensus. Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC that while the group has become more significant, achieving a unified statement has become harder due to members' divergent interests. For instance, while Russia and Iran might advocate for a stronger stance against Washington, India is reportedly in the final stages of a trade deal with the US and would prefer carefully crafted language to avoid confrontation.

The conflict in Iran is expected to be a central point of contention, particularly given the differing positions of members like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the latter of which hosts US military bases and has faced Iranian attacks. The scale of this challenge was evident in May, when BRICS foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement, forcing India to issue a chair's summary instead.

India, as the host, is keen to secure a consensus statement, seen as a measure of diplomatic success. Delhi has previously managed to secure a joint declaration at the G20 summit in 2023 despite deep divisions over Russia's war in Ukraine. This summit also offers India an opportunity to strengthen its claim to leadership of the global south, aligning with its foreign policy priorities of multilateralism and greater representation for developing countries.

Beyond the China-India talks, Mr Modi is also scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Discussions with Mr Putin are likely to prominently feature the war in Ukraine, following Mr Modi's public appeal for peace during their meeting last month at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek. India's growing trade deficits with both Russia and China are also expected to be on the bilateral agenda.