Trump weighs Iran strikes as Pentagon orders military preparations

What the military is planning

The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations against Iran. According to US officials cited by Axios, these plans include options for "massive bombing" targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and other strategic sites.

However, military officials have made clear that these preparations do not amount to a direct presidential order to launch strikes. President Donald Trump has yet to set a timeline or make a final decision on whether to proceed with the attacks.

Why diplomatic efforts stalled

The sudden shift toward military planning follows a complete deadlock in negotiations with Tehran. Trump signalled a sharp change in his administration's approach during a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, on Wednesday.

"I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop," Trump told supporters.

This stance represents a departure from recent efforts by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, who has been working on negotiating a diplomatic agreement.

Last week, Vice President JD Vance chaired a senior national security meeting at Camp David to assess the deadlock and map out military scenarios. The meeting, which included top defence, intelligence, and economic officials, focused closely on the broader conflict, including ongoing hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces in Yemen.

How the calendar is driving decisions

The timing of any potential strike is closely linked to the upcoming US midterm elections and Israel’s national elections on 27 October.

White House advisers are weighing whether launching military operations before the midterms could help or hurt Republican candidates. Trump’s domestic approval ratings have recently fallen to record lows, driven largely by public anger over high living costs and elevated fuel prices.

The administration is also coordinating closely with Israel. Trump has spoken twice in recent days with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Israeli officials believe the likelihood of a strike before their own election is low, they expect US and Israeli forces to operate in tandem if combat resumes. They are also preparing for potential retaliatory ballistic missile attacks from Iran.

Escalation across the region

The preparations come against the backdrop of an expanding regional conflict. In Yemen, Saudi-backed government forces launched a major offensive this week targeting the Iran-backed Houthis along the Red Sea coast and near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis responded with missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, hitting Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Abha Airport. Saudi authorities reported that the attacks killed three people and wounded dozens of others. In response, the Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes targeting more than 80 Houthi positions in Yemen.

Despite the fighting, energy analysts note that global oil shipping has adjusted to the risks. Data from Kpler shows that crude oil volumes exiting the Persian Gulf, excluding Iranian exports, have returned to pre-conflict levels of 18.5 million barrels per day as tankers adapt to the ongoing security threat.