El Niño winter forecast: US faces warmer, wetter months with snow shifting south

A powerful El Niño will make this winter warmer and wetter than usual across much of the United States, shrinking snowfall in northern cities while shifting storm tracks into the south, federal meteorologists announced on Thursday.

The three-month outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that parts or all of 41 of the lower 48 states will experience above-average temperatures. Not a single state is forecast to see below-average temperatures over the season, though forecasters stressed that brief, intense cold snaps remain possible.

Driving the pattern is a natural, periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that disrupts atmospheric currents across the globe. When an El Niño reaches this strength, it typically pulls the jet stream further south, shielding northern states from bitter Arctic blasts while funneling persistent moisture across the southern tier of the country.

Where the snow will fall

While NOAA does not issue definitive seasonal snowfall totals, agency meteorologists said the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the north-east, and the northern Rockies should anticipate lower snowfall than usual. Conversely, the southern Rockies, the south-west, and sections of the south-east may see heavier accumulations than normal.

Private forecasters echo that split. AccuWeather expects northern metropolitan centres to receive roughly half of their typical winter snow, with only a few western hubs bucking the trend.

"Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm," National Weather Service director Ken Graham said during a briefing on the outlook. "So it doesn’t erase the risk."

Rain, drought relief, and flood hazards

Precipitation is expected to be above average across parts of 39 states, offering significant relief to parched regions. Jon Gottschalck, a branch chief at the National Weather Service, said persistent drought conditions should ease or conclude across western Washington, western Oregon, the south-west, the central and southern Rockies, and the lower Mississippi valley.

That rainfall carries real risks. In California, forecasters warn that multiple atmospheric rivers could trigger severe flooding and mudslides. Further east, Florida and neighbouring Gulf Coast areas face an elevated threat of severe winter storms and tornadoes.

Forecasters note the current El Niño ranks among the strongest on record, rivalling the intense 1982–83 event. While that provides forecasters with strong historical analogues, some researchers caution that an unprecedented Pacific warming pattern combined with long-term climate warming makes exact local outcomes harder to guarantee.